{"id":999,"date":"2015-09-09T00:01:22","date_gmt":"2015-09-08T22:01:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/?p=999"},"modified":"2015-08-27T17:05:57","modified_gmt":"2015-08-27T15:05:57","slug":"automation-for-the-people-by-dan-pontefract","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/automation-for-the-people-by-dan-pontefract\/","title":{"rendered":"Automation for the People <br \/>by Dan Pontefract"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Athens, Georgia, based restaurant Weaver D&#8217;s Delicious Fine Foods was once honored by an American Classics awards to recognize \u201cgood, down-home food\u201d and \u201cunmatched hospitality\u201d \u2013 for its \u201cspot-on fried chicken, sweet potato casserole, buttermilk cornbread, and &#8230; signature squash casserole.\u201d\u00a0G.P. Dexter Weaver, the legendary owner, wants its service to be known as \u201cautomatic for the people\u201d, a term fellow Athens rock band R.E.M. used as an album title.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Wherever one looks researchers are predicting that \u201cautomatic for the people\u201d is morphing into something we might coin \u201cautomation for the people\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Researchers at the University\u00a0of\u00a0Oxford <a href=\"http:\/\/www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk\/downloads\/academic\/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf\">indicated<\/a>\u00a047\u00a0percent\u00a0of employees in\u00a0the\u00a0U.S.\u00a0are at\u00a0risk\u00a0of losing their jobs due to automation. In Australia, a recent report by\u00a0the\u00a0Committee\u00a0for\u00a0Economic\u00a0Development\u00a0of\u00a0Australia (CEDA)\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/adminpanel.ceda.com.au\/FOLDERS\/Service\/Files\/Documents\/26792~Futureworkforce_June2015.pdf\">suggests<\/a>\u00a040 percent of all jobs \u2014 more than 5 million\u2014 face the likelihood of being\u00a0replaced\u00a0by\u00a0computers in\u00a0the\u00a0next\u00a010\u00a0to\u00a015\u00a0years. It is no better in the United Kingdom either. Deloitte\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www2.deloitte.com\/content\/dam\/Deloitte\/uk\/Documents\/uk-futures\/london-futures-agiletown.pdf\">pointed out<\/a>\u00a0that 35 percent of all jobs across the U.K. will disappear by 2035. The authors further state \u201cjobs\u00a0paying\u00a0less\u00a0than\u00a0\u00a330,000\u00a0a\u00a0year\u00a0are\u00a0nearly\u00a0five\u00a0times\u00a0more\u00a0likely\u00a0to\u00a0be\u00a0lost\u00a0to automation\u00a0than\u00a0jobs\u00a0paying\u00a0over\u00a0\u00a3100,000.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps these predicted twists will end up becoming \u201cautomatic for the unemployed.\u201d If you believe the prognosticators, society might be left with 40 percent of the workforce unemployed, or underemployed.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Erik\u00a0Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, in their recent\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/secondmachineage.com\/\">book\u00a0<\/a><i>The\u00a0Second\u00a0Machine\u00a0Age<\/i>, argue that automation and advanced technologies are root causes to the widening income gap. In 2003,\u00a0Maarten Goos and Alan\u00a0Manning\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/eprints.lse.ac.uk\/20002\/1\/Lousy_and_Lovely_Jobs_the_Rising_Polarization_of_Work_in_Britain.pdf\">coined<\/a>\u00a0this phenomenon \u201cjob polarization\u201d.\u00a0Brynjolfsson and McAfee\u00a0suggest that such advances in concepts such as robotics and artificial intelligence may help to increase overall productivity, but it results in an ironic lack of job creation.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, the current state seems to have become \u201cautomation <i>against<\/i> the people.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>But there are those who believe this sort of advanced technology can actually accrue benefits to humans.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>David Autor, economics professor at the\u00a0Massachusetts\u00a0Institute of Technology is a firm believer that the so-called \u201csmart machines\u201d are not that smart and it is the tacit forms of knowledge that humans naturally possess that ensure we will forever remain \u201cautomatic <i>for<\/i> the people\u201d. In a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/economics.mit.edu\/files\/9835\">paper<\/a>\u00a0published in 2014, Autor presented many points suggesting automation is a good thing for society.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>He cautioned that human capital investment \u201cmust be at the heart of any long-term strategy for producing skills that are complemented rather than substituted by technology.\u201d He argued that job polarization will eventually disappear because \u201cmany of the middle skill jobs that persist in the future will combine routine technical tasks with the set of non-routine tasks in which workers hold comparative advantage\u201d including behavioral attributes such as adaptability, problem-solving, interpersonal interaction and flexibility.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps the future Autor describes has already arrived.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Autonomous haulage is beginning to take shape in the harsh climate of Northern Alberta throughout the oil sands. Gigantic $150 million trucks are not only expensive, they can be dangerous. A lot can go wrong when 8000 tonnes of dirt is moved 365 days a year by humans. Before self-driving trucks, there were normally four human drivers for each truck, and one mechanic for every 4-6 trucks. It was labour intensive, risky work.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>My organization, TELUS,\u00a0a $12 billion Canadian telecommunications firm,\u00a0has been working with the oil companies to create pervasive wireless coverage that permits self-driving trucks to operate in those harsh conditions all-day, every day. This has decreased collisions, rollovers and accidents because the autonomous driving error rates are lower than humans.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Improving safety has been a key motivator for the oil companies &#8211; not the elimination of jobs. In fact, oil companies encourage workers to achieve their mechanic&#8217;s license \u2013to safeguard the 24-hour cycle needed to keep the new trucks running. Perhaps this is an example of Autor&#8217;s point about comparative advantage. It is not as though a mechanic&#8217;s role can be automated. The oil companies need humans to fix an offline truck resulting in driver jobs being shifted to mechanic jobs.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Within TELUS, \u201cautomation for the people\u201d is being meshed with the \u201cautomatic for the people\u201d customer service ethos that Dexter Weaver defined earlier.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The team behind much of our client experience processes developed \u201cNext Best Action\u201d that uses a combination of big data, artificial intelligence and automation to improve the entire customer experience.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNext Best Action\u201d ensures call center agents and team members in our face-to-face stores have the details to be far more proactive \u2013 and arguably human \u2013 with a customer\u2019s inquiry than ever before. For example, if a client calls into the customer care team, there is automated logic that then routes the call to the right person in the right department saving time for both sides. Data is constantly being fed into a predictive analyzer which speeds up the potential to solve a customer issue. The opportunity is to merge automation and artificial\u00a0intelligence\u00a0with a far more customized human touch.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The goal is not to replace call center or store agents with automation; it is using the advanced technologies we continue to develop and invest in to further improve the overarching customer experience with our team members.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>But might those computers ever completely take over?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I asked David Autor if organizations should be worried about the so-called technological singularity, where computers and robots might learn how to redesign and improve their existing functionality, to ultimately become better than humans. His response said it all. \u201cNo, they should not be worried,\u201d Autor said. \u201cThe machines work for us. If they can ultimately do our jobs for us, then we are richer not poorer as a result.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Autor also introduced me to the observations of economist, computer scientist, and Nobel laureate Herbert Simon, who wrote in 1966 during another time of automation anxiety: \u201cInsofar as they are economic problems at all, the world\u2019s problems in this generation and the next are problems of scarcity, not of intolerable abundance. The bogeyman of automation consumes worrying capacity that should be saved for real problems.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Put differently, \u201cautomation for the people\u201d has been around for a long time.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I have never visited Weaver D&#8217;s Delicious Fine Foods restaurant yet, but when I do get there, I know there will be a smiling human being serving me. Indeed, \u201cautomatic <i>for<\/i> the people\u201d will be sticking around in perpetuity, most likely assisted by \u201cautomation <i>with<\/i> the people\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Athens, Georgia, based restaurant Weaver D&#8217;s Delicious Fine Foods was once honored by an American Classics awards to recognize \u201cgood,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[99,89],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/999"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=999"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/999\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1001,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/999\/revisions\/1001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}