{"id":6041,"date":"2026-09-10T18:36:39","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T16:36:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/?p=6041"},"modified":"2026-09-10T18:36:41","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T16:36:41","slug":"the-cost-of-being-sureby-guido-bosbach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/the-cost-of-being-sureby-guido-bosbach\/","title":{"rendered":"The Cost of Being Sure<br>By Guido Bosbach"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"538\" src=\"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Bosbach_Guido_1_1200x630px-1024x538.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6044\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Bosbach_Guido_1_1200x630px-1024x538.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Bosbach_Guido_1_1200x630px-300x158.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Bosbach_Guido_1_1200x630px-768x403.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Bosbach_Guido_1_1200x630px-1536x806.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Bosbach_Guido_1_1200x630px.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>An executive is asked how far along his company is with AI. He answers precisely: two pilots, one policy, forty people trained. Every word is accurate, and it describes a tenth of what is going on there. In the same week, a function that arrived with a March software update is pre-sorting job applications in his HR department. Nobody decided this. Nobody concealed it either. It came with the release notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Three Explanations That Let Leadership Off the Hook<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the gap gets pointed out, three explanations arrive without being invited. People are resisting. The culture lags behind. The tools are not mature yet. Each has cases behind it. Each places the problem in a person or in a waiting period, and none puts a task on the desk of the person who could act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My account starts from an odd place. Human nature is the constant here. It was the same three years ago, when these companies finished comparable programmes on time. What moved were prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Three Prices, All Moving the Same Way<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The first is a spread.<\/strong> Producing something that looks convincing has become nearly free. A market assessment, a shortlist with reasons: an hour of work, then a minute. Checking that output, and standing behind it, costs what it always cost. The expensive half did not move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The second is a transfer.<\/strong> The hours saved on the producing side reappear on the checking side, and nobody books the handover. A department doubles its output and reports the gain, correctly. Two floors up, a colleague works through her evenings to keep up with it, and that has no number, so it reaches no meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The third is the loss of a signal.<\/strong> Effort was the currency in which care was priced. A thick document had been worked on, a polished deck had cost someone a weekend, and we read visible effort as evidence of invisible diligence. That currency has been devalued, and nothing has replaced it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Put the behaviours from the beginning back into this picture. A division that would rather not report an unusually strong result is protecting itself against an expectation it cannot serve for four more quarters. A colleague who avoids being named as reviewer is avoiding an unpaid liability. Under these prices, both are reasonable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This matters for what happens next. Call it human nature, and it becomes something to endure. Call it a price, and it becomes something an organisation sets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Omission Goes Unobserved by Default<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Checking and not checking now produce the same artefact. The approved document looks identical whether someone worked through it or waved it past. The signature is there either way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>England&#8217;s A-level grading in the summer of 2020 shows what that costs. Cohort size decided the method: entries in groups of five or fewer kept their teacher&#8217;s assessment, groups of fifteen and above were graded by the model. Nobody decided that the larger cohorts would go unexamined by a person. A capacity rule did, and it held until students were on the street. Close to forty percent of grades came back below the teachers&#8217; assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No control system that looks at results will ever find this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ingenuity Was Never the Scarce Part<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ingenuity has always been cheap to produce and expensive to recognise. Every organisation generates more ideas than it can examine, and the selection ran on effort. The worked-through proposal got the meeting, the sketch on the napkin got a nod. That mechanism was crude and load-bearing, and it has failed without a successor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A company that wants ingenuity from here has to state its criteria before the proposals arrive. A blank page leaves more room for thinking than a text that is eighty-five percent right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Three Rules, and One Test<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Three rules follow. None can be delegated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Reversible decisions may run at machine speed. Binding ones may not.<\/strong> Readers will recognise the one-way and two-way doors from Amazon. That framework sorts decisions by the deliberation each deserves; this one sorts them by whose tempo they may run at.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Record what a decision assumed, not only what it concluded.<\/strong> A line in the file saying the supplier was expected to hold his prices until March is worth more in nine months than the approval signature above it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Name whoever sets these systems up, and put that position on the org chart.<\/strong> Someone chose which fields the tool reads and which it passes over. In most companies that person sits in procurement or at the vendor, and understands the job as installation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then a test, and it needs one event. Watch what happens the first time something out of a system goes wrong. If the person who approved it is left alone with it, everyone downstream learns by the end of that week to stop deciding. What happened in your company when it first went wrong?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Price of Disagreement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When I wrote here in April about the filters that keep an organisation from hearing what it already knows, one of my recommendations was to protect dissent. I would put a condition on it now. That piece asked what an organisation permits to be said. This one asks what saying it costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dissent used to carry a price, and whoever raised it paid: an evening spent building the counter-case, the standing risked by slowing a meeting down. That price was why a serious objection was taken seriously. Producing an objection now costs a prompt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Drucker distrusted agreement that arrived too easily. His illustration was Sloan adjourning a meeting because everyone concurred, asking for time to develop disagreement. Consensus that costs nothing tells you nothing, and that test now has to be turned on dissent as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Machines supply agreement at no cost, and disagreement on the same terms. The work in front of executives is to put the cost of being sure back on the books, and to see to it that whoever pays it is not left alone with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>About the author<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Guido Bosbach<\/strong> <\/em>is a management consultant and author based in Bonn, Germany. He works with executive teams on decision quality, organizational clarity, and the cultural conditions for sustainable performance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An executive is asked how far along his company is with AI. He answers precisely: two pilots, one policy, forty people trained. Every word is accurate, and it describes a tenth of what is going on there. In the same week, a function that arrived with a March software update is pre-sorting job applications in his HR department. Nobody decided this. Nobody concealed it either. It came with the release notes.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/?p=6041\">[\u2026]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":""},"categories":[396],"tags":[397,156],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6041"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6041"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6041\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6046,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6041\/revisions\/6046"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6045"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}