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Society ascribes legitimacy to ecosystems. When ecosystems cannot meet societal expectations, they, and the firms within, deteriorate (h\/t Simon Caulkin<\/a>).<\/p>\n A regime shift is a process whereby a change in the structure and function of an ecosystem will result. Regime shifts are critical for ecosystem evolution and maintenance of societal legitimacy.<\/p>\n This article is one in the \u201cshape the debate\u201d series relating to the 11th Global Peter Drucker Forum<\/a><\/span>, under the theme \u201cThe Power of Ecosystems\u201d taking place on November 21 & 22, 2019 in Vienna, Austria. Conditions need to be \u2018just right\u2019 for a regime shift to occur. This blog considers the mobility ecosystem that could indicate such conditions.<\/p>\n The Mobility Ecosystem<\/strong><\/p>\n The Mobility Ecosystem exists to help the movement of people and objects from A to B in the most direct manner. Recent improvements in technology may catalyse a regime shift that may see road transport be subordinated to air transport.<\/p>\n Condition 1: Opportunity for Regime shift.<\/em><\/p>\n The road transport regime doesn’t allow direct A to B travel, because road transport requires roads.<\/p>\n Invented soon after the wheel, roads remain \u2018old-tech\u2019. They are expensive to plan, build, maintain, are permanent and do not scale well.<\/p>\n Condition 2: Regime shift catalyst \u2013 why now.<\/em><\/p>\n Society has seen advancements in lightweight materials, electrification, energy storage, and autonomous technologies. These technologies are needed for autonomous, electric-powered transport.<\/p>\n Regime dominance will accrue to the regime that can meet societal expectations while furthering the ecosystem’s fundamental purpose.<\/p>\n Condition 3: Viable alternative regime<\/em><\/p>\n Currently, the most direct way to travel from A to B is air transport. Technology advancements may soon make widespread autonomous electric air transport commercially viable.<\/p>\n R&D investment into autonomous electric road transport technology exceeds US$80bn. Uncertainties introduced by the behavioural vicissitudes of human-controlled vehicles and pedestrians represent a significant barrier and challenge for autonomous road technology.<\/p>\n Such challenges do not exist even 30 metres above the ground. The air transport environment currently contains human actors who are highly trained, regulated and it operates in a very stable behavioural and regulatory environment. Unlike autonomous road transport, autonomous air transport can be delivered with little risk borne from attempted co-integration with non-uniform human actors.<\/p>\n Condition 4: Regime feedback mechanism disruption<\/em><\/p>\n Representative of the road transport regime entrenchment is the estimated US$2T p.a. revenues in the US alone. A shift to air transport regime dominance cannot occur without a societal shift.<\/p>\n Additionally, significant technical challenges remain for electric air transport (battery performance being one).<\/p>\n Despite these challenges, the consensus delivery timeframes for widespread autonomous electric road and air transport technologies either over-lap or are separated by a mere 5-10 years. Such timeframes could impair return expectations for road transport and in turn may provide the feedback shock needed to catalyse the regime shift.<\/p>\n Where from here?<\/strong><\/p>\n From time to time, ecosystems, stuck in their legacy paradigms (h\/t Joseph Pistrui and Dimo Dimov<\/a>), will experience existential crises. When this occurs, Society, and not the ecosystem, should ask two fundamental questions:<\/p>\n What societal purpose does<\/em> the ecosystem serve?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n What societal purpose should<\/em> the ecosystem serve?<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n
Drucker Forum 2019<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
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