{"id":1903,"date":"2018-09-04T09:35:47","date_gmt":"2018-09-04T07:35:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/?p=1903"},"modified":"2023-11-01T14:21:27","modified_gmt":"2023-11-01T13:21:27","slug":"artificial-intelligence-the-long-term-human-factor-by-thomas-klaus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/artificial-intelligence-the-long-term-human-factor-by-thomas-klaus\/","title":{"rendered":"Artificial Intelligence: The Long-Term Human Factor by Thomas Klaus"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why we shouldn\u2019t be concerned about the \u2018AI takeover \u2018<\/p>\n

The Threat<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Artificial intelligence (AI) is in the headlines almost daily, nearly always in alarming form. Will AI eat my job? What will happen if and when it is used for military purposes? What do we make of the assertion of the late Stephen Hawking, later supported by Bill Gates, Elon Musk and others, that \u2018the development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race\u2019?1<\/sup><\/a> <\/span><\/p>\n

When researchers are asked about the risks of an \u2018AI takeover\u2019, most answer that the technology is not currently powerful enough to compete with human intelligence or is missing important aspects of autonomous intelligence. Although this is undoubtedly true, I do not find it a comforting thought, as ongoing research and investment will certainly ensure that it continues to add to its capabilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Far Future<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

However, I want to focus on AI not in the present but in relation to the distant future. <\/span><\/p>\n

In around 5.4 billion years, it is surmised, the Sun will expand into a red giant, in the process destroying the planets Mercury, Venus, very likely the Earth and possibly also Mars.2<\/sup><\/a> We can easily imagine life on Earth as we know it today coming to an abrupt and very hot end.<\/span><\/p>\n

So what, you may say. Well, while the end of Life As We Know It Today (LAWKIT) is not an immediate concern, whether distant or not, the likelihood that humans will one day need to leave our home planet Earth is high \u2013 and long before the year 5 bn AD. <\/span><\/p>\n

LAWKIT is physically bound to specific ranges of environmental conditions \u2013 a specific temperature zone and specific abundance of oxygen, water, atmospheric pressure. With that in mind, it is pertinent to know that 1 billion years from now, when the Sun\u2019s luminosity increases by 10%, temperatures will rise to 47 \u00b0C and ocean water begin to evaporate.3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

In a much smaller time horizon, we can already see how humans are undermining LAWKIT on this planet \u2013 indeed, some believe humanity itself is on the road to extinction. Others cling to the belief that our powers of innovation will come to the rescue by solving outstanding environmental problems and repairing ecological damage already done. But even then, we will still be faced with the challenge of relentless population growth coupled with limited planetary resources \u2013 such that we will almost certainly need to exploit resources on other planets and moons. <\/span><\/p>\n

Altogether it is more than plausible that at some stage we will have to prepare ourselves to leave this planet, explore the space around us and find a new home elsewhere. After all, isn\u2019t this why humans were born with the spirit of discovery?<\/span><\/p>\n

Hexit <\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

A Human Exit (Hexit) from planet Earth might seem a daunting prospect. Yet we should also recognise that it has begun already. Mars has already been probed with orbiters, rovers and pathfinders. Now preparations for human missions are under way.4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

This obviously raises many questions. The technological challenges of interplanetary travel lasting months or years and sustaining LAWKIT on a planet like Mars are formidable. How can humans adapt to life conditions that they were not made for? Alternatively, can we adapt other planets\u2019 conditions to human needs (\u201cterraforming\u201d)? We may be able to create water and oxygen, but varying surface gravity is tough to handle. So is ionizing radiation: while Earth\u2019s atmosphere and the magnetic field shield us on our home planet, the route to Mars and Mars\u2019 surface have no such protection. <\/span><\/p>\n

As for interstellar travel, sending humans to the next solar system, Alpha Centauri (\u201conly\u201d 4.37 light years away), by a generation starship will require several generations of humans.5<\/sup><\/a> The effects on human beings and especially humans conceived and born in space are completely unknown and most likely difficult to control. <\/span><\/p>\n

The AI Way<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Do we rely on the power of human ingenuity to smooth the path to Hexit? Another option that I\u2019d like to consider is an AI-based approach in which we principally make use of developed AI machines that explore other moons or planets and later extra-solar objects. Of course, AI will be utilized as it is and could simply be combined with the Hexit approach.<\/span><\/p>\n

The advantage of AI machines or robots is simple: they don\u2019t need the specialized environmental conditions that humans do. Robots can survive without water, without atmospheric oxygen and in a wider range of different atmospheric pressures and surface gravities<\/span><\/p>\n

So, let\u2019s invest more in AI research!<\/span><\/p>\n

But what about the threat of an AI takeover?<\/span><\/p>\n

The Long-Term Human Factor<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

We can envisage several ways in which a SuperHuman AI (SHAI) could evolve and behave towards humans were we eventually to lose control. In an AI takeover, SHAI might consider humans to be<\/span><\/p>\n