In discussing his new book, Machines of Loving Grace: The Quest for Common Ground Between Humans and Robots<\/i>, the journalist John Markoff pointed out how polarizing the subject of automation and its effect on employment tends to be.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u201cYou can go from the International Federation of Robotics on one side, which argues that we are on the cusp of the biggest job renaissance in history, to Moshe Vardi, a Rice computer scientist, who argues that all human jobs will be obsolete by 2045,\u201d Markoff observed.<\/a> \u201cWhich group is right?\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n If Peter Drucker were around, I don\u2019t think he\u2019d hesitate to serve up an answer: Neither.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Drucker, who had watched this struggle play out many times over many years, believed that the inexorable march of machines was neither a panacea nor a complete catastrophe. And he was wary of any analysis that tipped too far in one direction.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThe technology impacts which the experts predict almost never occur,\u201d Drucker wrote in his 1973 classic<\/a> Management: Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices<\/i>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Indeed, Drucker viewed automation as a decidedly mixed bag\u2014a lift for those fortunate souls with the knowledge and skills to take advantage of the shifting landscape of work and a huge challenge for many others invariably left behind.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n One of Drucker\u2019s first looks at this double-edged dynamic came in 1946, when he visited the Mississippi Delta and witnessed the mechanical cotton picker replacing laborers in the field\u2014for better as well as for worse.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cIt is easy\u2014and very popular in the Deep South today\u2014to see only one aspect of the technological revolution through which the Cotton Belt is passing: the removal of the dead hand of the cotton economy and plantation society, the establishment of a sound agriculture and of a better balance between industry and farming, higher incomes, better living standards, the end of sharecropping\u2014in short the final emancipation of both white and colored from slavery,\u201d Drucker reported<\/a> in Harper\u2019s<\/i> magazine. \u201cIt is also easy to see only the other aspect: dislocation, the suffering, the uprooting of millions of people who will lose their homes and their livelihood.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cHowever,\u201d Drucker added, \u201cthe full picture, as in all technological revolutions, emerges only if both\u2014the better life for those who can adjust themselves and the suffering of those who are pushed out\u2014are seen together and at the same time.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Over the decades, as agriculture gave way to manufacturing and much of manufacturing was supplanted by knowledge work, Drucker worried ever more about those who were being \u201cpushed out.\u201d He feared that they would lose not only their income, but also the basic sense of dignity and fulfillment that comes from putting in a solid day\u2019s work.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The \u201cshrinkage of jobs in the smokestack industries and their conversion to being capital-intensive rather than labor-intensive, that is, to automation, will put severe strains\u2014economic, social, political\u2014on the system,\u201d\u00a0Drucker warned in his 1986 book<\/a> The Frontiers of Management<\/i>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n From his earliest writings to his last, Drucker offered the same prescription to deal with such hardship: the creation of meaningful opportunities for lifelong learning. After all, he wrote<\/a> in 1955, \u201cif there is one thing certain under automation, it is that the job . . . will change radically and often.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Of particular note now\u2014in an age where artificial intelligence threatens to upend the careers of even the most well-educated white-collar workers\u2014Drucker didn\u2019t preach the importance of lifelong learning for any one type of occupation. Everyone, he thought, must continually be prepared to take in and master new ways to approach their job.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cThis will be true in all areas of the organization: rank and file, office work, technical and professional work, managerial work,\u201d Drucker asserted. \u201cOn every level, adult education . . . will be needed.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Making this happen was, in Drucker\u2019s eyes, a joint responsibility. The public sector has its part\u2014to make sure that \u201cschools and employing institutions . . . work together in the advanced education of adults.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cSchool,\u201d Drucker wrote in 1993\u2019s<\/a> Post-Capitalist Society<\/i>, \u201chas traditionally been where you learn; job has been where you work. The line will become increasingly blurred.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Employers also have their role, including \u201cactive and energetic attempts at retraining for specific new job opportunities,\u201d as Drucker put it. And each employee must step up and be ready to embrace what\u2019s being taught\u2014over and over and over again. \u201cPeople have to learn how to learn,\u201d Drucker advised. \u201cNo one is allowed to consider himself or herself \u2018finished\u2019 at any time.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/p>\n These concepts are not, in and of themselves, earth-shattering. But they are extremely difficult to execute, for they require from all parties\u2014educators, executives and individual employees\u2014attributes that are distinctly human: vision, heart and courage. As Drucker knew all too well, none of that comes with the simple press of a button.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n About the author:<\/strong><\/p>\n Rick Wartzman is the executive director of the <\/i>Drucker Institute<\/i><\/a> at Claremont Graduate University and a <\/i>columnist for <\/i>Fortune<\/a> magazine online.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In discussing his new book, Machines of Loving Grace: The Quest for Common Ground Between Humans and Robots, the journalist<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[99,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1050"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1050"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1050\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1052,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1050\/revisions\/1052"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.druckerforum.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}